One of the greatest shocks in tennis history took place at this year’s French Open. Jannik Sinner, who was the shortest-priced favorite to win the tournament since the days of “peak” Rafael Nadal, was leading 6-2, 6-2, 5-1 against Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the second round, and, rather unbelievably, managed to lose.
It’s hard to put this into context, but it would be something akin to having a hand of quad aces and watching as your opponent gets two perfect cards in the turn and river to pull out a straight flush. Perhaps that doesn’t even do it justice.
There were mitigating circumstances, though. The extreme heat at Roland Garros seemed to make Sinner ill, and he was clearly a shadow himself across the remainder of the match.
Sinner’s collapse cost some pro bettors a fortune
Incredibly, there were pro bettors lumping in on Sinner to win as he took control of the match. The odds varied, but betting traders were lumping on thousands of dollars to win small amounts – one bet we saw on social media placed $50K to just over $900 – and ended up with nothing. They called it “free money” in their original post.
A lesson for all of us? We know in sports betting that there is no such thing as a sure thing. A lot of events, say, a bet on the Stanley Cup Final, can feel like 50/50, but we can start to get emotional when things look certain, losing our perspective of probability.
There have been numerous other examples. In 2024, a Vegas bettor put $25K on Carlos Alcaraz – a -10,000 favorite – to win his second round match in the US Open. The payout would have been $250. Alcaraz lost.
A year earlier, someone put $1.4 million as a live in-game bet on the LA Chargers, who were 27-0 up in an NFL Wild Card Playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The payout would have been $11K. Well, you can guess what happened next.
Keep it in perspective about your potential losses
So, what’s the lesson? It’s not exactly that you shouldn’t bet big to win small, plenty of pro gamblers do that and make a living out of it, but we suppose that it’s about perspective, and appreciating that sportsbooks don’t pull odds out of thin air. You can be sure that if the implied probability in the odds is 1 in ten thousand, then the chances of it happening are higher than that.
For poker, the same lesson applies. The language is different, but the underlying truth is the same: even the strongest position is not the same as a guaranteed outcome. If you get your money in as a 95% favorite at the poker table, you should be delighted. Over time, that is exactly the kind of spot that makes winning players profitable.
Above all, keep in mind that odds of 1/100, 1/1000, or even 1/10000 are never free money.
